Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
RAFAEL MARCHÁN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
RAFAEL
MARCHÁN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
42
Grade D
Matchup
VS Tyler Gilbert · —
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
42
VS
Rookie / call-up — no 2026 MLB starts logged yet. Season ERA / WHIP / K% will populate after this pitcher's next outing.
Statcast Matchup
No recent Statcast on file for this pitcher yet.
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
80.1 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 11% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Gilbert—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
15 300°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+17%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:04 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game