Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ROWDY TELLEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ROWDY
TELLEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Wandy Peralta · LHP
93.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
55
VS
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.50
K%
14%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.2 | 85.4 |
| Barrel% | 33% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 22% |
| xwOBA | .796 | .288 |
| xSLG | 1.417 | .415 |
| Whiff% | 27% | 6% |
| Chase% | 40% | 21% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.2 avg EV · 33.3% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Peralta0
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
7 302°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game