Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ryan Rolison
Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants · Pitcher

RYAN ROLISON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line

RYAN
ROLISON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%95 mph
Curveball18%80 mph
Slider18%87 mph
Sweeper15%86 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
LIMITED DATA — ROOKIE/CALL-UP
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
50
projected lineup
VS
ERA
—
WHIP
—
K%
—
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .386 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 50% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
—
K/GM
—
IP/GM
—
ERA
—
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
Strikeout data pending
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 0 starts
No recent starts
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
60°
Wind
9 268°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
-1%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:27 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
