RYAN YARBROUGH

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

RYAN

YARBROUGH

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Cutter28%85 mph

Changeup26%78 mph

Sweeper18%72 mph

Sinker14%87 mph

4-Seam14%87 mph

Matchup

VS TB LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

70

Good

projected lineup

VS

ERA

5.40

WHIP

1.27

K%

17%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	28%	25%
SwStr%	12.8%	11%
Chase%	23%	28%
xwOBA-a	.311	.315
Barrel%-a	7%	8%
HardHit%-a	32%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

0.8

K/GM

1.3

IP/GM

5.68

ERA

1.26

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

17% season K rate

Contact Suppression

7% barrel · 32% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Neutral park

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 5.68 ERA · 14% K

2

3

2

1

1

2

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs TB—

Tonight's Park

HR

-3%

Hits

-3%

2B

-11%

3B

+31%

K

+3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

72°

Wind

0

Rain

0%

HR Adj

0%

K Adj

0%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 9:02 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.