SETH LUGO

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

SETH

LUGO

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Cutter22%90 mph

Sinker17%91 mph

4-Seam16%92 mph

Curveball16%78 mph

Sweeper9%79 mph

Changeup9%85 mph

Slider7%84 mph

Matchup

VS SD LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

46

Average

projected lineup

VS

ERA

5.37

WHIP

1.44

K%

17%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	17%	25%
SwStr%	7.2%	11%
Chase%	21%	28%
xwOBA-a	.406	.315
Barrel%-a	9%	8%
HardHit%-a	47%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

4.0

K/GM

5.1

IP/GM

6.75

ERA

1.70

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

17% season K rate

Contact Suppression

9% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Pitcher's park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 6.75 ERA · 17% K

5

3

6

4

2

3

7

4

6

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs SD—

Tonight's Park

HR

-15%

Hits

+5%

2B

+16%

3B

+76%

K

-12%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

88°

Wind

10 200°

Rain

20%

HR Adj

+13%

K Adj

-7%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 4:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.