Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Shane Bieber
Toronto Blue Jays · Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays · Pitcher
ERA 9.82 · WHIP 2.45 · K 11% · 1 starts

SHANE BIEBER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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SHANE
BIEBER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam31%92 mph
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
1
projected lineup
VS
ERA
9.82
WHIP
2.45
K%
11%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 13% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .732 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 29% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 59% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.0
K/GM
3.7
IP/GM
9.82
ERA
2.45
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
11% season K rate
Contact Suppression
29% barrel · 59% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 1 starts
0 of 1 starts over
Last 5: 9.82 ERA · 11% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
0%
Hits
-2%
2B
+9%
3B
-31%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:18 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
