Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Slade Cecconi
Cleveland Guardians · Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.41 · WHIP 1.29 · K 19% · 11 starts
SLADE CECCONI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SLADE
CECCONI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker28%93 mph
Cutter21%89 mph
Slider18%83 mph
4-Seam16%93 mph
Curveball14%77 mph
Matchup
VS MIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.41
WHIP
1.29
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .351 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
3.76
ERA
1.33
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.76 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
3 49°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.