Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Stephen Kolek
Kansas City Royals · Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.50 · WHIP 1.24 · K 15% · 10 starts
STEPHEN KOLEK
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
STEPHEN
KOLEK
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider25%86 mph
4-Seam25%94 mph
Sinker22%94 mph
Cutter9%91 mph
Sweeper9%80 mph
Changeup9%87 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.50
WHIP
1.24
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .362 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
4.6
IP/GM
5.87
ERA
1.65
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 5.87 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
91°
Wind
5 156°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+19%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.