Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Steven Cruz
Kansas City Royals · Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.06 · WHIP 1.13 · K 23% · 4 starts
STEVEN CRUZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
STEVEN
CRUZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam62%98 mph
Cutter20%93 mph
Slider16%90 mph
Matchup
VS CHW LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
58
VS
ERA
5.06
WHIP
1.13
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .379 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 28% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.3
K/GM
1.3
IP/GM
5.06
ERA
1.13
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 28% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 4 starts
0 of 4 starts over
Last 5: 5.06 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHW—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
64°
Wind
7 65°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
+1%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:33 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.