Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tatsuya Imai
Houston Astros · Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.98 · WHIP 1.38 · K 27% · 10 starts
TATSUYA IMAI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
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H
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TATSUYA
IMAI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam45%95 mph
Slider45%87 mph
Splitter9%85 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.98
WHIP
1.38
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 33% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .502 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.0
K/GM
3.0
IP/GM
8.40
ERA
1.73
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 8.40 ERA · 35% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 249°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.