Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tobias Myers
New York Mets · New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 10.13 · WHIP 2.00 · K 12% · 8 starts
TOBIAS MYERS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TOBIAS
MYERS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam60%94 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
10.13
WHIP
2.00
K%
12%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 13% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .419 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 30% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 55% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.2
K/GM
2.3
IP/GM
7.94
ERA
1.85
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
12% season K rate
Contact Suppression
30% barrel · 55% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 8 starts
0 of 8 starts over
Last 5: 7.94 ERA · 11% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
74°
Wind
10 203°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:57 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.