Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Trey Gibson
Baltimore Orioles · Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.75 · WHIP 1.75 · K 25% · 5 starts
TREY GIBSON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TREY
GIBSON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker27%94 mph
Slider22%87 mph
4-Seam19%95 mph
Cutter18%92 mph
Curveball10%84 mph
Matchup
VS CHW LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.75
WHIP
1.75
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .371 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
4.0
IP/GM
6.75
ERA
1.75
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 6.75 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHW—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
3 199°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:58 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.