Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Will Klein
Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.18 · WHIP 1.94 · K 25% · 11 starts
WILL KLEIN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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Win
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ER
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H
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WILL
KLEIN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam47%97 mph
Sweeper32%88 mph
Curveball17%85 mph
Matchup
VS NYY LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.18
WHIP
1.94
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .347 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.6
K/GM
1.2
IP/GM
3.00
ERA
1.33
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.00 ERA · 30% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYY—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
7 321°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:30 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.