Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Zac Gallen
Arizona Diamondbacks · Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 7.39 · WHIP 1.61 · K 13% · 11 starts
ZAC GALLEN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
ZAC
GALLEN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam33%93 mph
Changeup22%87 mph
Slider21%89 mph
Knuckle-Curve14%81 mph
Sinker7%93 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
7.39
WHIP
1.61
K%
13%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .444 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 18% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
5.7
IP/GM
8.58
ERA
1.59
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
13% season K rate
Contact Suppression
18% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 8.58 ERA · 12% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
5 217°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.