Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Zach Dezenzo
Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros · in lineup
MG Score
40
F
Tonight's Matchup
10
Matchup
Avoid
vs Paul Skenes · RHP · 92.0 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
2.81
WHIP
0.88
K%
30%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
84.3
79.9
Barrel%
18.5%
0.0%
Hard Hit%
30%
0%
xwOBA
.368
.186
xSLG
.556
.219
Whiff%
32%
37%
Chase%
30%
29%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Paul Skenes.
Tonight's Park · Daikin Park
HR-friendlyHR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather · overcast clouds
Wind killing HRHR weather
-14%
Temp
76°
Wind
7 in
Rain
36%
HR/Temp/Wind colored for the hitter · Rain = game-delay risk
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
84.3
Barrel%
18.5%
Hard Hit%
30%
Sweet Spot%
44%
xwOBA
0.368
xSLG
0.556
Recent Games
Last 5
20%
1/5 games
Last 10
30%
3/10 games
Last 20
40%
8/20 games
Last 30
40%
8/20 games
AVG
.158
OBP
.238
SLG
.263
OPS
.501
HR
0
RBI
0
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Texas Rangers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Texas Rangers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Texas Rangers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Chicago Cubs | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/19 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/18 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Zach Dezenzo
Houston Astros · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
85.5 mph
Avg LA
12.7°
Hard-hit %
33%
Barrel %
20%
Outcomes (15 balls)
Home Run
1Triple
0Double
2Single
3Out
9Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/24/2026 - 5/31/2026
Games: 5
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
FPerformance Score
20Exit Velo
79.6 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
0.0%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
36.0%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.297
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
33.3%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: No standout metrics
Areas for Improvement: Exit Velo, Hard Hit%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
90.8 mph
Launch Angle
-3.0°
xBA
0.301
xSLG
0.377
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
66.7%
Fly Ball%
N/A
Line Drive%
33.3%
Pop Up%
N/A
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.