ZACH THORNTON

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

ZACH

THORNTON

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Cutter40%88 mph

Matchup

VS BOS LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

55

Average

projected lineup

VS

ERA

4.35

WHIP

1.16

K%

24%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	28%	25%
SwStr%	15.4%	11%
Chase%	36%	28%
xwOBA-a	.408	.315
Barrel%-a	7%	8%
HardHit%-a	47%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

5.0

K/GM

5.2

IP/GM

4.35

ERA

1.16

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

24% season K rate

Contact Suppression

7% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Neutral park · air suppressing HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 2 starts

0 of 2 starts over

Last 5: 4.35 ERA · 24% K

3

7

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs BOS—

Tonight's Park

HR

+3%

Hits

-9%

2B

-11%

3B

-25%

K

+4%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

78°

Wind

9 161°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

-0%

K Adj

0%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 8:55 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.