Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Zack Littell
Washington Nationals · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals · Pitcher
ERA 3.59 · WHIP 1.14 · K 17% · 12 starts
ZACK LITTELL
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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ZACK
LITTELL
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider30%88 mph
4-Seam29%92 mph
Splitter21%84 mph
Sinker11%92 mph
Sweeper9%80 mph
Matchup
VS PIT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.59
WHIP
1.14
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .481 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 51% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.6
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
3.75
ERA
1.21
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 51% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 3.75 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PIT—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
92°
Wind
2 178°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+14%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.