Research · June 15 – July 12, 2026
Which Sportsbooks Post the Softest MLB Prop Lines? 91,962 Lines, Measured
We compared every sportsbook's MLB player-prop price against the market consensus across 91,962 prop lines (667,547 individual book prices) from June 15 – July 12, 2026, spanning batter hits, home runs, total bases. The result is a clean, model-free ranking of which books consistently give bettors the best of it — and which quietly hold more.
By David Campbell, Mongoose Bets · Published 2026-07-13
The short version
- DraftKings is the softest major book: it posted the single best price on 31% of props and beat the market consensus 57.4% of the time (+0.82 pp vs the field on average).
- BetMGM is the other book worth an account: it had the best line on 21.4% of props despite a roughly neutral average — it is streaky-soft.
- FanDuel, the largest US book, priced props about 0.5 pp harder than the field — it wins on product, not on price.
- The offshore book MyBookie.ag priced props -4.21 pp worse than the consensus — a standing reminder that offshore convenience is paid for in the hold.
Every book, ranked by price softness
| Sportsbook | Avg vs consensus | Beats field | Posts best line |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +0.82 pp | 57.4% | 31% |
| Fanatics | +0.45 pp | 40.7% | 16.2% |
| Bovada | +0.13 pp | 32.9% | 3.9% |
| BetMGM | +0.05 pp | 38.1% | 21.4% |
| Caesars | -0.10 pp | 17.5% | 1.9% |
| BetRivers | -0.11 pp | 30.8% | 11.8% |
| FanDuel | -0.48 pp | 25.3% | 13.8% |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.21 pp | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Sample: 91,962 MLB props with a 3+ book consensus (667,547 book prices), June 15 – July 12, 2026. Books shown where posted in the market.
What it means for line shopping
Prop markets are far softer than main lines because books can't sharpen thousands of individual player numbers as tightly as a game total. That is exactly where line shopping pays. Across our sample, moving a bet from a middle-of-the-pack book to DraftKings was worth roughly a full probability point of value on average, and betting into MyBookie.ag instead cost more than four. Over a season of props, that gap is the difference between a small edge and a slow bleed.
The practical takeaway: hold accounts at the two or three consistently-soft books (DraftKings, BetMGM, and Fanatics here), and always check the price against the field before you bet. Our Odds Outliers board flags off-market prop prices live, and the no-vig calculator converts any line to its true implied probability so you can compare apples to apples.
Methodology & caveats
This is a market-internal measure — it does not depend on Mongoose Bets' simulation being right. For every prop with at least three books priced, we took the consensus as the median implied probability across those books (best odds per book, de-duplicated), then measured each book's deviation from that consensus in probability points. It is the same math that powers our live off-market detector.
Caveats: this measures line-shopping value versus the field, not whether a bet wins. Book availability varies by state, and a book that posts fewer props (like Caesars here) will show a smaller "best line" share for structural reasons. The window is June 15 – July 12, 2026; promotions and boosts are excluded. Data is Mongoose Bets' own odds capture across 3 MLB prop markets.