Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
AARON JUDGE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
AARON
JUDGE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP
88.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
60
VS
ERA
6.54
WHIP
1.45
K%
14%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 95.1 | 91.3 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 100% | 41% |
| xwOBA | .224 | .414 |
| xSLG | .422 | .598 |
| Whiff% | 25% | 15% |
| Chase% | 0% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
95.1 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 100% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sugano3
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
12 204°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:02 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game