Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees · Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees
MG Score
73
B
Tonight's Matchup
100
Matchup
Smash spot
vs Joey Cantillo · LHP · 84.0 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.20
WHIP
1.30
K%
16%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
95.7
87.0
Barrel%
23.9%
14.3%
Hard Hit%
61%
29%
xwOBA
.484
.533
xSLG
.779
.857
Whiff%
27%
8%
Chase%
27%
23%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA · Low sample
AB
3
AVG
.333
OPS
1.667
HR
1
H
1
K
0
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
95.7
Barrel%
23.9%
Hard Hit%
61%
Sweet Spot%
28%
xwOBA
0.484
xSLG
0.779
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
50%
5/10 games
Last 20
55%
11/20 games
Last 30
59%
13/22 games
AVG
.184
OBP
.279
SLG
.316
OPS
.595
HR
1
RBI
8
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Athletics | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Athletics | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Athletics | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Kansas City Royals | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/21 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
94.1 mph
Avg LA
17.3°
Hard-hit %
54%
Barrel %
27%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
13Triple
0Double
9Single
18Out
60Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.