Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia Phillies · New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.49 · WHIP 1.36 · K 25% · 11 starts
AARON NOLA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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AARON
NOLA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Knuckle-Curve34%78 mph
4-Seam21%93 mph
Sinker20%92 mph
Changeup18%85 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.49
WHIP
1.36
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 30% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .371 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.2
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
5.60
ERA
1.35
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.60 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
10 314°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:51 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.