Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia Phillies · Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Pitcher
ERA 3.57 · WHIP 1.26 · K 28% · 10 starts
AARON NOLA
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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AARON
NOLA
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Knuckle-Curve31%79 mph
4-Seam24%93 mph
Changeup20%86 mph
Sinker16%92 mph
Cutter8%87 mph
Matchup
VS ARI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
59
projected lineup
VS
ERA
3.57
WHIP
1.26
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 31% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 35% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .383 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.4
K/GM
5.8
IP/GM
2.79
ERA
1.21
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.79 ERA · 31% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ARI—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:24 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.