Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
ABIMELEC ORTIZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ABIMELEC
ORTIZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
57
Grade C
Matchup
VS Ryan Gusto · RHP
88.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
57
VS
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.15
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.9 | 88.9 |
| Barrel% | 13% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 39% | 42% |
| xwOBA | .394 | .361 |
| xSLG | .614 | .519 |
| Whiff% | 22% | 18% |
| Chase% | 38% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.9 avg EV · 13.1% barrel · 39% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Gusto0
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
5 80°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-14%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:06 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game