Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ADAM FRAZIER
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ADAM
FRAZIER
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
42
Grade D
Matchup
VS Trevor Rogers · LHP
88.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
4
VS
ERA
2.21
WHIP
1.05
K%
21%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.3 | 89.2 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 5% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .415 | .348 |
| xSLG | .501 | .474 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 23% |
| Chase% | 0% | 42% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.3 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Rogers—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
4 175°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-2%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game