Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
ADRIAN DEL CASTILLO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ADRIAN DEL
CASTILLO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Walker Buehler · RHP
89.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
16
VS
ERA
3.42
WHIP
1.20
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 76.1 | 89.6 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 16% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 39% |
| xwOBA | .045 | .365 |
| xSLG | .053 | .565 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 14% |
| Chase% | 40% | 28% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
76.1 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Buehler—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
5 276°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:12 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game