Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Adrian Houser
San Francisco Giants · Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.52 · WHIP 0.94 · K 16% · 11 starts
ADRIAN HOUSER
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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ADRIAN
HOUSER
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker47%95 mph
4-Seam33%96 mph
Changeup12%86 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.52
WHIP
0.94
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .341 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.8
K/GM
3.6
IP/GM
0.50
ERA
0.94
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 0.50 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
71°
Wind
7 297°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:03 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.