Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Adrian Houser
San Francisco Giants · San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.38 · WHIP 1.38 · K 20% · 11 starts
ADRIAN HOUSER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
ADRIAN
HOUSER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker43%95 mph
4-Seam23%95 mph
Changeup16%85 mph
Curveball11%82 mph
Slider8%88 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.38
WHIP
1.38
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 20% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .400 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.8
K/GM
3.0
IP/GM
2.40
ERA
0.80
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.40 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
70°
Wind
15 173°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
-7%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:03 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.