AJ SMITH-SHAWVER

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

AJ

SMITH-SHAWVER

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam58%97 mph

Matchup

VS MIN LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

18

Terrible

projected lineup

VS

ERA

4.15

WHIP

1.38

K%

21%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	7%	25%
SwStr%	2.9%	11%
Chase%	18%	28%
xwOBA-a	.457	.315
Barrel%-a	23%	8%
HardHit%-a	54%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

4.0

K/GM

4.3

IP/GM

4.15

ERA

1.38

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

21% season K rate

Contact Suppression

23% barrel · 54% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-friendly park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 1 starts

0 of 1 starts over

Last 5: 4.15 ERA · 21% K

4

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs MIN—

Tonight's Park

HR

+7%

Hits

+1%

2B

+10%

3B

+10%

K

+7%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

69°

Wind

3 291°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+8%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 9:47 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.