Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Alan Rangel
Philadelphia Phillies · New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.48 · WHIP 1.65 · K 24% · 7 starts
ALAN RANGEL
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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ALAN
RANGEL
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam36%93 mph
Changeup34%81 mph
Slider18%84 mph
Curveball12%74 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.48
WHIP
1.65
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .313 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
3.0
IP/GM
7.20
ERA
2.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 7 starts
0 of 7 starts over
Last 5: 7.20 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
7 36°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-4%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:24 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.