Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ALEC BURLESON
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ALEC
BURLESON
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
65
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Merrill Kelly · RHP
89.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
64
VS
ERA
5.06
WHIP
1.48
K%
14%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.0 | 89.0 |
| Barrel% | 17% | 20% |
| Hard Hit% | 51% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .381 | .326 |
| xSLG | .560 | .451 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 31% |
| Chase% | 37% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.0 avg EV · 17.1% barrel · 51% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Kelly0
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:21 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game