Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ALEJANDRO KIRK
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ALEJANDRO
KIRK
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
59
Grade C
Matchup
VS Zack Littell · RHP
87.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
56
VS
ERA
5.10
WHIP
1.28
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.2 | 88.0 |
| Barrel% | 6% | 21% |
| Hard Hit% | 44% | 36% |
| xwOBA | .341 | .339 |
| xSLG | .461 | .519 |
| Whiff% | 8% | 19% |
| Chase% | 17% | 36% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.2 avg EV · 6.0% barrel · 44% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Littell1
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
10 327°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+22%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:25 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game