Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Alejandro Osuna
Texas Rangers · Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals
MG Score
41
D
Tonight's Matchup
24
Matchup
Avoid
vs Dustin May · RHP · 92.4 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.77
WHIP
1.03
K%
23%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
86.6
90.9
Barrel%
0.0%
17.1%
Hard Hit%
34%
51%
xwOBA
.292
.345
xSLG
.369
.499
Whiff%
12%
26%
Chase%
30%
32%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Dustin May.
Tonight's Park · Busch Stadium
Pitcher's parkHR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
86.6
Barrel%
0.0%
Hard Hit%
34%
Sweet Spot%
31%
xwOBA
0.292
xSLG
0.369
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
50%
5/10 games
Last 20
55%
11/20 games
Last 30
57%
13/23 games
AVG
.250
OBP
.300
SLG
.250
OPS
.550
HR
0
RBI
1
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5/31 | Kansas City Royals | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Kansas City Royals | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5/28 | Houston Astros | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Houston Astros | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Houston Astros | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Houston Astros | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Los Angeles Angels | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Alejandro Osuna
Texas Rangers · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
86.0 mph
Avg LA
-0.8°
Hard-hit %
33%
Barrel %
10%
Outcomes (42 balls)
Home Run
0Triple
0Double
1Single
13Out
28Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 6/1/2026
Games: 10
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
FPerformance Score
21Exit Velo
83.5 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
25.9%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
25.0%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.256
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
29.6%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: No standout metrics
Areas for Improvement: Exit Velo, xwOBA
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
101.7 mph
Launch Angle
-5.2°
xBA
0.272
xSLG
0.316
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
66.7%
Fly Ball%
3.7%
Line Drive%
25.9%
Pop Up%
3.7%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.