Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ALEK THOMAS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ALEK
THOMAS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Lake Bachar · RHP
89.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
47
VS
ERA
4.34
WHIP
1.13
K%
21%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 95.5 | 86.1 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 24% |
| xwOBA | .335 | .367 |
| xSLG | .403 | .578 |
| Whiff% | 25% | 22% |
| Chase% | 25% | 25% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
95.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Bachar0
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
100°
Wind
8 226°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:13 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game