Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
ALEX FREELAND
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ALEX
FREELAND
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Cade Cavalli · RHP
91.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
89
VS
ERA
1.95
WHIP
0.92
K%
32%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 97.5 | 88.0 |
| Barrel% | 29% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 57% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .515 | .386 |
| xSLG | .835 | .588 |
| Whiff% | 9% | 33% |
| Chase% | 21% | 35% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
97.5 avg EV · 28.6% barrel · 57% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Cavalli—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
8 227°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:05 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game