Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Alex Freeland
Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
MG Score
49
D
Tonight's Matchup
1
Matchup
Avoid
vs Michael Soroka · RHP · 88.2 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
1.62
WHIP
0.87
K%
20%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
89.1
80.2
Barrel%
5.0%
10.5%
Hard Hit%
35%
16%
xwOBA
.246
.215
xSLG
.364
.314
Whiff%
22%
10%
Chase%
25%
40%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Michael Soroka.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
89.1
Barrel%
5.0%
Hard Hit%
35%
Sweet Spot%
35%
xwOBA
0.246
xSLG
0.364
Recent Games
Last 5
20%
1/5 games
Last 10
30%
3/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
50%
10/20 games
AVG
.214
OBP
.333
SLG
.464
OPS
.798
HR
2
RBI
4
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Philadelphia Phillies | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Colorado Rockies | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/10 | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/9 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/6 | Houston Astros | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/5 | Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/4 | Houston Astros | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Alex Freeland
Los Angeles Dodgers · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
87.2 mph
Avg LA
6.3°
Hard-hit %
40%
Barrel %
16%
Outcomes (68 balls)
Home Run
3Triple
0Double
5Single
16Out
44Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.