Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
ALIKA WILLIAMS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ALIKA
WILLIAMS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
44
Grade D
Matchup
VS Jacob deGrom · RHP
93.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
26
VS
ERA
5.29
WHIP
1.45
K%
29%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 81.9 | 87.7 |
| Barrel% | 2% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 34% | 37% |
| xwOBA | .268 | .396 |
| xSLG | .367 | .545 |
| Whiff% | 16% | 30% |
| Chase% | 38% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
81.9 avg EV · 2.4% barrel · 34% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs deGrom—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:25 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game