Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Andre Pallante
St. Louis Cardinals · Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.73 · WHIP 1.20 · K 17% · 11 starts
ANDRE PALLANTE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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ANDRE
PALLANTE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider33%88 mph
4-Seam31%95 mph
Sinker19%96 mph
Knuckle-Curve17%79 mph
Matchup
VS MIL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.73
WHIP
1.20
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .304 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 32% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
4.15
ERA
1.25
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 32% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.15 ERA · 13% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
5 145°
Rain
87%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.