Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Andre Pallante
St. Louis Cardinals · St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.26 · WHIP 1.22 · K 15% · 11 starts
ANDRE PALLANTE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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ANDRE
PALLANTE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam37%95 mph
Slider27%88 mph
Knuckle-Curve17%80 mph
Sinker16%95 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.26
WHIP
1.22
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .334 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
2.05
ERA
1.17
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.05 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
74°
Wind
3 286°
Rain
96%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:12 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.