Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Andrew Abbott
Cincinnati Reds · Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.15 · WHIP 1.38 · K 19% · 10 starts
ANDREW ABBOTT
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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ANDREW
ABBOTT
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%92 mph
Changeup23%87 mph
Sweeper18%82 mph
Curveball12%80 mph
Cutter7%89 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.15
WHIP
1.38
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .342 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 34% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
6.46
ERA
1.56
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 34% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 6.46 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
8 242°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:04 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.