Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Andrew Abbott
Cincinnati Reds · Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.91 · WHIP 1.34 · K 21% · 10 starts
ANDREW ABBOTT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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ANDREW
ABBOTT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam40%92 mph
Sweeper21%83 mph
Changeup18%86 mph
Curveball13%80 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.91
WHIP
1.34
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .394 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
4.43
ERA
1.48
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.43 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 338°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-15%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.