Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Andrew Morris
Minnesota Twins · Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins · Pitcher
ERA 7.20 · WHIP 1.90 · K 14% · 10 starts

ANDREW MORRIS
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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ANDREW
MORRIS
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam53%98 mph
Cutter26%93 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
57
projected lineup
VS
ERA
7.20
WHIP
1.90
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .281 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 3% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 28% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.8
K/GM
1.1
IP/GM
8.44
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
3% barrel · 28% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 8.44 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
6 319°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+17%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:21 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
