Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Andrew Painter
Philadelphia Phillies · Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.09 · WHIP 1.41 · K 20% · 11 starts
ANDREW PAINTER
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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H
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ANDREW
PAINTER
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam30%97 mph
Sweeper25%83 mph
Changeup22%91 mph
Slider15%88 mph
Sinker5%95 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.09
WHIP
1.41
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .351 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 5% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.2
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
3.95
ERA
1.02
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
5% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.95 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
11 214°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+23%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:01 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.