Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Andrew Painter
Philadelphia Phillies · Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies · Pitcher
ERA 8.23 · WHIP 1.76 · K 15% · 6 starts
ANDREW PAINTER
Over K—@ —
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K
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ER
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H
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ANDREW
PAINTER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam29%97 mph
Slider26%88 mph
Splitter19%88 mph
Sweeper12%83 mph
Curveball7%81 mph
Sinker7%95 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
8.23
WHIP
1.76
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .344 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 30% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
9.70
ERA
2.02
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 30% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 6 starts
0 of 6 starts over
Last 5: 9.70 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
9 208°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+17%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.