Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ANDY PAGES
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
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Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
51
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Ranger Suarez · LHP
86.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
60
VS
ERA
3.72
WHIP
1.33
K%
27%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.5 | 88.5 |
| Barrel% | 6% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 40% | 56% |
| xwOBA | .339 | .478 |
| xSLG | .454 | .608 |
| Whiff% | 21% | 18% |
| Chase% | 31% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.5 avg EV · 6.3% barrel · 40% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Suarez0
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
5 210°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:40 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game