BAILEY OBER

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

BAILEY

OBER

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Changeup35%83 mph

4-Seam27%88 mph

Matchup

VS CHC LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

40

Bad

projected lineup

VS

ERA

4.19

WHIP

1.17

K%

18%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	23%	25%
SwStr%	12.2%	11%
Chase%	18%	28%
xwOBA-a	.403	.315
Barrel%-a	23%	8%
HardHit%-a	46%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

3.8

K/GM

5.7

IP/GM

4.71

ERA

1.19

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

18% season K rate

Contact Suppression

23% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 4.71 ERA · 16% K

7

10

3

2

3

7

1

3

3

5

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs CHC—

Tonight's Park

HR

-8%

Hits

-3%

2B

-15%

3B

+16%

K

+3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

85°

Wind

6 276°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+12%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 12:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.