Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Bailey Ober
Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.32 · WHIP 1.50 · K 15% · 10 starts
BAILEY OBER
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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BAILEY
OBER
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam35%87 mph
Changeup29%82 mph
Slider20%82 mph
Sweeper13%76 mph
Matchup
VS CHW LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.32
WHIP
1.50
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .394 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 19% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.4
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
4.84
ERA
1.43
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
19% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.84 ERA · 12% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHW—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
12 90°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:00 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.