Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Beck Way
Kansas City Royals · Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.38 · WHIP 1.69 · K 16% · 10 starts
BECK WAY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
BECK
WAY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter42%91 mph
Sinker27%97 mph
Sweeper18%88 mph
4-Seam10%97 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.38
WHIP
1.69
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .333 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.8
K/GM
1.1
IP/GM
6.35
ERA
1.76
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 6.35 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
8 223°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:09 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.