Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BEN MALGERI
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BEN
MALGERI
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Ryan Weathers · LHP
88.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
52
VS
ERA
5.04
WHIP
1.12
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 93.3 | 86.1 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .566 | .393 |
| xSLG | .707 | .600 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 27% |
| Chase% | 50% | 43% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
93.3 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Weathers—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
67°
Wind
6 148°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-11%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:39 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game