BLADE TIDWELL

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

BLADE

TIDWELL

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Sweeper31%82 mph

4-Seam27%95 mph

Matchup

VS HOU LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

76

Great

projected lineup

VS

ERA

3.18

WHIP

1.18

K%

19%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	17%	25%
SwStr%	8.0%	11%
Chase%	20%	28%
xwOBA-a	.272	.315
Barrel%-a	6%	8%
HardHit%-a	44%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

1.6

K/GM

2.2

IP/GM

3.27

ERA

1.27

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

19% season K rate

Contact Suppression

6% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Pitcher's park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 9 starts

0 of 9 starts over

Last 5: 3.27 ERA · 17% K

2

2

1

1

2

2

3

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs HOU—

Tonight's Park

HR

-20%

Hits

+1%

2B

+3%

3B

+33%

K

-3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

63°

Wind

12 250°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+9%

K Adj

-1%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 8:26 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.