Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BLAZE JORDAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BLAZE
JORDAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
61
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Colin Rea · RHP
88.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
76
VS
ERA
4.88
WHIP
1.47
K%
16%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.9 | 87.7 |
| Barrel% | 8% | 20% |
| Hard Hit% | 45% | 27% |
| xwOBA | .366 | .556 |
| xSLG | .513 | .875 |
| Whiff% | 22% | 13% |
| Chase% | 33% | 24% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.9 avg EV · 7.8% barrel · 45% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Rea—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
10 29°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:22 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game