Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics

MLB / Research
Mongoose Bets
BO NAYLOR
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
Bo Naylor
BO
NAYLOR
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Exit Velo82.6Barrel%50%Hard Hit%50%xwOBA.639Sweet Spot%100%Whiff%29%Chase%56%
Matchup
VS Wilber Dotel · RHP
95.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
62
Average
VS
ERA
3.71
WHIP
1.35
K%
24%
Statcast Matchup
 Last 10Allows
Exit Velo82.688.6
Barrel%50%5%
Hard Hit%50%38%
xwOBA.639.322
xSLG.972.416
Whiff%29%16%
Chase%56%33%
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
82.6 avg EV · 50.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10:  — AVG  ·  0 HR  ·  0 RBI  ·  — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Dotel—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
5 251°
Rain
36%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:20 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game