Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brad Lord
Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.95 · WHIP 1.73 · K 22% · 11 starts
BRAD LORD
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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BRAD
LORD
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider33%86 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.95
WHIP
1.73
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 43% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .420 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.2
K/GM
1.6
IP/GM
9.00
ERA
2.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 9.00 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
16 167°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+21%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.