Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brad Lord
Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.48 · WHIP 1.19 · K 19% · 30 starts
BRAD LORD
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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BRAD
LORD
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam38%94 mph
Sinker22%94 mph
Sweeper20%83 mph
Slider16%84 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.48
WHIP
1.19
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 22% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .392 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
2.3
IP/GM
6.94
ERA
1.71
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 6.94 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
90°
Wind
10 246°
Rain
2%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:21 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.