Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Bradgley Rodriguez
San Diego Padres · San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · Pitcher
ERA 2.79 · WHIP 1.03 · K 31% · 10 starts
BRADGLEY RODRIGUEZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
BRADGLEY
RODRIGUEZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup47%91 mph
4-Seam27%98 mph
Sinker18%98 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
76
projected lineup
VS
ERA
2.79
WHIP
1.03
K%
31%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 35% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .274 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 28% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.4
K/GM
0.8
IP/GM
4.50
ERA
1.75
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
31% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 28% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.50 ERA · 37% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
6 292°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:28 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.