Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
BRADY HOUSE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BRADY
HOUSE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
63
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Yusei Kikuchi · LHP
90.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
71
VS
ERA
4.96
WHIP
1.47
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.0 | 92.4 |
| Barrel% | 10% | 21% |
| Hard Hit% | 47% | 48% |
| xwOBA | .377 | .426 |
| xSLG | .552 | .613 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 23% |
| Chase% | 29% | 27% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.0 avg EV · 9.7% barrel · 47% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Kikuchi—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
4 100°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-17%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game