Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BRADY HOUSE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BRADY
HOUSE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
53
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Shane Bieber · RHP
88.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
77
VS
ERA
4.70
WHIP
1.43
K%
17%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 96.9 | 88.6 |
| Barrel% | 50% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 75% | 44% |
| xwOBA | .485 | .393 |
| xSLG | .815 | .572 |
| Whiff% | 11% | 24% |
| Chase% | 50% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
96.9 avg EV · 50.0% barrel · 75% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Bieber—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
11 206°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-7%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:24 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game