Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brandon Valenzuela
Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves
MG Score
58
C
Tonight's Matchup
vs Bryce Elder · RHP · 90.2 mph avg
ERA
3.16
WHIP
1.05
K%
21%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
86.4
87.3
Barrel%
10.4%
0.0%
Hard Hit%
35%
50%
xwOBA
.375
.414
xSLG
.509
.520
Whiff%
18%
6%
Chase%
26%
22%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Bryce Elder.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
86.4
Barrel%
10.4%
Hard Hit%
35%
Sweet Spot%
44%
xwOBA
0.375
xSLG
0.509
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
70%
7/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
56%
14/25 games
AVG
.242
OBP
.359
SLG
.303
OPS
.662
HR
0
RBI
0
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/21 | New York Yankees | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | New York Yankees | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/18 | New York Yankees | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Brandon Valenzuela
Toronto Blue Jays · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
87.6 mph
Avg LA
13.0°
Hard-hit %
37%
Barrel %
18%
Outcomes (60 balls)
Home Run
3Triple
0Double
2Single
13Out
42Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.