Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brandon Young
Baltimore Orioles · Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.92 · WHIP 1.34 · K 20% · 10 starts
BRANDON YOUNG
Over K—@ —
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Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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BRANDON
YOUNG
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam43%95 mph
Splitter20%83 mph
Slider13%84 mph
Sinker12%94 mph
Curveball11%76 mph
Matchup
VS KC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.92
WHIP
1.34
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .334 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 2% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
4.4
IP/GM
4.09
ERA
1.64
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
2% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.09 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs KC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
9 104°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.