Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Braxton Ashcraft
Pittsburgh Pirates · Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.38 · WHIP 1.07 · K 23% · 11 starts

BRAXTON ASHCRAFT
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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BRAXTON
ASHCRAFT
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam28%98 mph
Sinker26%97 mph
Curveball25%85 mph
Slider20%92 mph
Matchup
VS STL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.38
WHIP
1.07
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .336 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
6.6
IP/GM
2.18
ERA
0.76
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.18 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs STL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
91°
Wind
6 0°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:40 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
