Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Braxton Ashcraft
Pittsburgh Pirates · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.05 · WHIP 1.17 · K 29% · 11 starts
BRAXTON ASHCRAFT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
BRAXTON
ASHCRAFT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Curveball30%85 mph
4-Seam28%98 mph
Slider22%92 mph
Sinker15%97 mph
Splitter6%92 mph
Matchup
VS MIL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.05
WHIP
1.17
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 40% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .396 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.4
K/GM
4.9
IP/GM
5.11
ERA
1.14
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.11 ERA · 32% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
2 99°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.