BRAYAN BELLO

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

BRAYAN

BELLO

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Sinker42%96 mph

Changeup21%89 mph

Cutter15%88 mph

Sweeper10%86 mph

4-Seam9%96 mph

Matchup

VS ARI LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

79

Great

projected lineup

VS

ERA

3.43

WHIP

1.16

K%

19%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	26%	25%
SwStr%	12.4%	11%
Chase%	33%	28%
xwOBA-a	.300	.315
Barrel%-a	2%	8%
HardHit%-a	26%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

3.0

K/GM

3.7

IP/GM

0.49

ERA

0.87

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

19% season K rate

Contact Suppression

2% barrel · 26% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-suppressing park · air suppressing HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 0.49 ERA · 21% K

1

5

5

4

5

5

3

2

1

4

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs ARI—

Tonight's Park

HR

-9%

Hits

+8%

2B

+24%

3B

-6%

K

-1%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

71°

Wind

3 109°

Rain

100%

HR Adj

-5%

K Adj

-5%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 10:45 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.